The Black Swan. Why Donít We Learn that We Donít Learn?
"My portrait of the perfect fool of randomness is as follows:
1) He believes in the stock market because he is told to do so ó automatically allocating a portion of his retirement money.
And he does not realize that the manager of his mutual fund does not fare better than chance ó actually a bit worse, after the (generous) fees.
2) He believes in the government's ability to "forecast" economic variables, oil prices, GNP growth, or inflation...simple _empiricism_ would suffice.
3) He believes in the "skills" of the chairmen of large corporations and pays them huge bonuses for their "performance".
4) His scientific integrity makes him reject religion but he believes the economist because "economic science" has the word "science" in it.
5) He believes in the news media providing an accurate representation of the risks in the world. They don't.
By what I call the narrative fallacy, the media distorts our mental map of the world
by feeding us what can be made into a story that can be squeezed into our minds."